The Federal Reserve's Barkin said it still believes inflation will fall back towards the Fed's 2% target, and the case for raising interest rates depends on evidence of overheating.
The Federal Reserve's Barkin said that inflation is falling back towards its 2% target and can see a possible path for inflation to firm up or continue to progress towards the target. He was encouraged by the unemployment rate in December, and the current job market appears to have stabilized. There is not much evidence to support the claim that the economy is weakening.
Federal Reserve Barkin: The underlying outlook for 2025 is positive, with more upside risks to growth than downside risks. Inflation is still not back to target and more work is needed.
Federal Reserve Barkin: There is a growing recognition that long-term interest rates may not fall as sharply as once hoped.
Federal Reserve Barkin: There are some potential upside risks to inflation.
On January 4, in a prepared speech, the Federal Reserve's Barkin said his base case for 2025 was positive: "I expect more upside to growth than downside." He added that expectations of economic expansion may be responsible for the recent pick-up in business optimism. His optimism about the economic outlook is in part due to his belief that the growth momentum in consumer spending is likely to maintain healthy economic growth in the coming months. "With business optimism running high and labour s...
Federal Reserve Barkin: Given the potential upside risk to inflation, it prefers to continue tightening for a longer period of time.
Federal Reserve Barkin said that uncertainty in the financial marekt appears to have decreased, and the market's forecast of the policy path is in line with the Fed's median expectation. There is a growing recognition that long-term interest rates may not fall as much as once hoped.
The Fed's Barkin said the underlying outlook for 2025 was positive, with more upside risks to growth than downside risks. Inflation is still not back on target and more work is needed; there are some potential upside risks to inflation. The 2025 story will focus less on monetary policy and more on economic fundamentals and perhaps geopolitics.
Barkin said the Fed would have to find its way to a neutral interest rate, depending on whether inflation stabilised. There may be more cost pressures in the future, and it is good to take a prudent approach.